Monday May 15, 2017
Kabul (BNA) Submitting a report to US Senate Intelligence Committee, Chief of US National Intelligence Agency Den Kots has said that 2018 would probably be a difficult year to Afghanistan.
This assessment of senior American official shows that civilian casualties would increase. Comparing the previous years, Taliban insurgents have simultaneously expounded scope of their operations from north east to Southern parts. Only two days before ANDSF managed to recapture Zibak district in Badakhshan. Concerns are in testifying on possible collapse of Sar-e-Pul provincial capital every day. In Kunduz and Baghlan ANDSF are potentially fighting terrorist networks. Under such circumstances, the government and its allies are facing a difficult question of how to retake initiative of war management and expand the government domain. Yet, no clear response. While the controversial issue is maintaining status quo, every hope should result in improvement of security situation and stability.
But so far a big political consensus based on a specific strategy on war on terror has not been created while the need for such a consensus is felt more than ever. Brussels conference will be held soon and we should wait announcement of Trump administration new strategy on Afghanistan. The strategy would largely help to speculate future. Statements of US secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Games Mattis show that Trump administration is to determined support the NUG seriously. Tendency to exert pressure on terrorism is once again returning but still there are many issues that could change the whole situation. For instance the US secretary of State has defended legitimate peace with Taliban while legitimacy of peace bears different meanings by both sides. Taliban at present believe that they are fighting a legal war against US, allies and NUG. But peace legitimacy should be according to official recognition of democracy, human rights, freedom of speech, freedom of gender and elected democratic government.
A system that should recognize ethnic and political pluralism and pave the way of people presence in making political decisions. Taliban don’t believe such a system. No doubt the US Secretary of State is well aware on this issue. Due this reason, his statements would create such consideration for Taliban that as if the US and allies have been fed up of current war in Afghanistan, prior to determine a framework for reconciliation. This believe at present is the only psychological incentive of Taliban and in case of gaining visible signs, Taliban would obsoletely insist on war and increasing instability. Experience of Iraq could be a lesson either to NUG or its allies and universal supporters. Starting of US war on Saddam caused Afghanistan right after fall of Taliban while they were still wandering and involved in rehabilitation of their networks, to be facing with heedlessness of international allies.
The graph of corruption ascension according to time as well as increasing insecurities and political tensions in the last one and half decade show that following the US invasion of Iraq, situation of Afghanistan has been deteriorating. During this period, the US and allies tried to bridge the gap of their absence with a strategy that as a result it delayed good governance, restoration of security and suppressing of terrorism and eradication of corruption. Afghanistan is now in a deep crisis. The US and NATO allies have to opt between two cases. Either they should totally forget Afghanistan that as a result this country would be changed once again the field of regional competitions and nest of terrorism, or according to Iraq experience and their expenditures in the last 16 years, put Afghanistan seriously and effectively at the pivot of their attention.
Lailuma Noori
